Anthony Speciale Stock Market Analyst

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Knowing What’s Trending

Carter Clews (00:00):

Hi, this is Carter clues and welcome to Tim. Melvin’s a better way to wealth. And today I’m going to talk about something very important. And it’s in the trending today, section of your, of your daily briefing. I want you to examine that very closely because those plays by Tim can crush the market. Absolutely crushed the market. Tim, can you lay some of that out for us? Where are these people should look and what they should look for?

Tim Melvin (00:24):

Yeah, sure. And good morning, Carter. Good. See every, every day when you open my briefing that I sent to you, you’re going to see a section called trending now, and under there, we’re going to talk about four specific ways that have been proven over time to have the potential for just market crushing wealth building returns. Now there’s lots of people out there that are going to tell you, here’s how you beat the market. Here’s what you have to do. And there’s lots of theories and tests and ideas that are talked about. And most of them don’t work. Some of them work for a little while, but the ones that really work and work all the time and have throughout history for a whole bunch of economic and psychological reasons will always work in the future are a subset of one of two things.

Tim Melvin (01:12):

One is momentum stocks that are already moving, but are going to keep moving because money’s piling into them and pushing higher. And then the other one’s buying earnings and assets have very low multiples. Now, today I’m going to talk to you about momentum because this is a grossly misunderstood way of selecting stocks. The momentum stocks are stocks that are all ready, moving. Okay. They’ve started to take off they’re offering market beating returns before we ever bought bought them. Now, the key to making momentum work is you have to look for what I call smooth momentum. These have to be stocks that are having just smaller daily moves money coming in, pushing the stock up a little bit each and every day I call that smooth momentum. What I don’t want are the, I call it a herky jerky momentum where the stocks just all over the place up 10 points today, down 20, tomorrow up 15, the next day that you know, are very news. And story-driven in, you know, the, the Reddit stocks of the last year have been a primary example of herky-jerky momentum. I don’t want those as quick as they could go up. They’re going to go down. And if you’re in there at the wrong time, you’re going to lose money. I’m allergic to losing money. Typically

Carter Clews (02:33):

These are your herky jerky. If I’m not mistaken and correct me if I’m wrong, but the herky jerky, or when I keep seeing over and over again on the, the Yahoo finance the CNN NBC TV programs, where they pitch this thing as this hot get in now, get in now. And I’m kind of at risk if I do that, from what you’re saying, because excellent.

Tim Melvin (02:55):

Those are the stories, stocks that are usually being, you know, somewhat manipulated by internet traders and other folks. We just want nothing to do with that. We want smooth momentum stocks in our movie. They’ve already made big moves, but it’s a decent size move that was made by smaller. One day moves. That’s assigned to institutions are coming into the stock, bring in big money and just buying stock every day and pushing it up a little bit every day. And it’s extremely powerful. It runs totally counter to your intuition where, you know, you want to buy stocks when they’re down. You’re buying stocks that have already made big moves. I like to compare it to a rocket ship you’re buying as the rocket clears the launch that the rocket’s going to keep going higher. So I look harder at two types of momentum. Every and every day I’m going to put a stock up there that exists exhibiting these characteristics for you to consider.

Tim Melvin (03:51):

The first is 30 day momentum. These are the stocks that have been the best performers over the last 30 days. And again, we’re going to go through this list. I’m going to find those that just have that smooth and up to the right momentum that we want to see the shares exhibiting. Don’t make us a lot of money though. Right? Right. Great. Institutions are in there. They’re buying big traders are buying there’s cash coming in every day to push this stock even higher. Remember rocket ship clears the launch launchpad. It’s still going a lot higher. Okay. Something’s going on? Yeah, we were all perfect example. Yes. Thank you. Speaking of rocket chips, I’ll give you an example. You know, last year in January, Virgin Galactica, the company, we all just watched the the flight into lower space last weekend. It was very cool.

Tim Melvin (04:42):

They’re going to do space. Tourism is what they hope to do. Right? Well, the stock made a big move and came onto our list. That already was one of the top performers in the last 30 days. But here it is at $11 a share. It’s clear in the launch pad, right? As we identified at 11 on the 17th of January, 2020, the institution started really flooding this stock with cash. And it shot all the way up to $50 a share before it became a popular story stock and it got far more volatile and you probably would have wanted to exit the position about then in January, we saw a cassava sciences. That’s a CAS, it’s a biotech company. Well, the stock was already strong because everybody knew they had stuff in it. The FDA, the stock had have made a big move, but it was smooth up to the right just continual buying pressure coming in to the stock.

Tim Melvin (05:41):

So it hit our list at about $20 a share in January of 2021. And in about six weeks Carter, this stock ran all the way up to $50 a share before it became too volatile for us to want to continue to hold. And then, you know, banks are one of my favorite areas. Everybody knows that back in November, 2020, a bank silver gate capital may de-list stock. It already had a huge move because silver gate was one of the first banks to work with cryptocurrency dealers and exchanges. And they would actually, and we’ll still accept cryptocurrency as a deposit. So they were attracting momentum and interested buyers already. The stock came in at $20 a share and ran all the way up to about $120 a share again, before volatility got a little carried away, you probably would have jumped, wanted to jump out. So they’re already made a move, but it was slow and up to the right and the money just kept coming in. And the stock coverage

Carter Clews (06:48):

You discovered at the 20 and knew the momentum had started. The momentum was there. It was on the rocket ship had taken off. If it were on trending now on your daily briefing, that’s when we should have gotten in, had it been on there. And then we would have made six times our money. You say 90 days,

Tim Melvin (07:07):

Would that be 120 days? But it was just four to five, five to six months. The stock just kept moving. So

Carter Clews (07:13):

That’s, that’s why when we started out, I said, folks, check the trending today every day, every day. All right, good brick money, quick money. The

Tim Melvin (07:23):

Other thing that we’re going to look at is every day is 90 day momentum. Okay. This is stock stayed the rockets in mid-flight okay. But money’s still coming in. The pattern is still tight and up to the right smooth momentum, just more money, more institutions coming in, adding to the stock every day, pushing the stock a lot higher. And it’s got a lot higher to go. And again, just look here. You tend to see the momentum in the market before things actually happen. Like in March of 2020 we were really just starting to deal with the panic of the pandemic, but shares of Medina had started moving. The vaccine company had started moving as far back as January. So by the end of March, Madonna comes in it’s at $30. It’s already made this big move. It’s one of the top performing stocks of the last 90 days.

Tim Melvin (08:17):

We’re not even talking about the vaccine at the end of March in 2020, but the institutions were thinking about it. As soon as they heard it was in China, that some of the more forward-thinking hedge funds and institutions are starting to buy this stock and they’re pushing it up. It’s on our 90 day list. The money continues to come in. The patterns stay smooth and up to the right with small, tight daily moves, the stock runs all the way up to $80 a share before it starts making the news. And the pattern gets a little bit too volatile. Come

Carter Clews (08:48):

On trendy today. We would’ve seen a four times profit there. Obviously your daughter loves her stock. Yes

Tim Melvin (08:57):

He does. Yes. The other type of momentum that I’m going to look at every day in the daily letter that I sent to you is 90 day momentum. Now this is let’s figure it out again. The rocket ship is in mid-flight okay. It’s taken off. But the pattern, the stock pattern is still tight and smooth. There’s not a lot of volatility in the movement. It’s just institutions coming in steadily putting money into the stock, pushing it higher. Now what’s neat. About 90 day momentum is it tends to actually lead the news. So as an example, last year in March of 2020, we were dealing with the pandemic. There was not a lot of information around it was, you know, the predictions back then were horrifying as to what could happen both in a public health and an economic basis, right? And nobody was really talking about vaccines, but some farsighted, you know, large investors had started thinking about it when it made its way from China into Europe.

Tim Melvin (09:55):

And it’s not, Hey, it’s going to come here. We’re going to need a vaccine or this is going to get back. So they started buying shares of maternity. By the time it hits our list at the end of March, 2020, the stocks already made a big move. Okay. But it’s smooth momentum. It’s just institutions coming in, buying more shares each and every day, pushing that stock a little bit higher every day. That’s what we want to see. Smooth 90 day momentum. Well, Madonna long before they became the leader in the vaccine, race the stocks at $30 a share, we’re going to identify it and send it to your right there. And it ran all the way up to 80 bucks before anybody could even blink. And then, you know, AM’s

Carter Clews (10:38):

More than, more than eight, almost, almost triple, almost triple in value, a reasonably short period of time. Yes. In a short period of time. Fantastic. Excellent stock. Good.

Tim Melvin (10:49):

Yeah. Awesome. March AMC holdings hit hit the list. And that was March of this year, 2021. AMC entertainment was stolen list of companies, highly likely to disappear because you know, who’s going to the movie theater, nobody and they hadn’t for a long time, but the CEO made an announcement that they were in talks to sell assets and raise some cash. And he thought they’d have enough cash on hand to get all the way through till 2022, when the pandemic was hopefully starting to air. So the stock started to move, went from about three bucks to about 10 bucks in a 90 day period of time and just kept moving that’s from December into March. So we’re looking at it, the stock show already tripled it’s got momentum, but that pattern is very smooth. It’s height. And it’s moving up to the right is big institutions.

Tim Melvin (11:43):

And in this case, it was even a lot of private equity funds putting money into this stock each and every day, it would have hit our list on March 27th, 2001 at about 10 bucks, the Reddit kids got ahold of it. Those wacky guys that shoot and reading about they drove the stock all the way up to 50 bucks in just a very few months. So that’s from 10 to five. Okay. The stock became just so volatile. You, you had to sell you couldn’t, you couldn’t bear to hold in any longer, but again, that slow smooth momentum over 90 days, stocks already performed, but it had a lot higher today.

Carter Clews (12:20):

So you discovered at the 90 day point, and then in the trending today, you tell us, Hey folks, this is one that it’s time to get in on because it’s got the 90 day momentum and it’s going to make a lot more money perhaps very, very quickly. Am I right?

Tim Melvin (12:38):

Absolutely correctly. Excellent. The last one. And again, because I love banks, I got to throw a banking story in there, right? In October of last year, a company by the name of live Oak bank Corp came onto the list about 30. Now live eight is one of the more tech savvy banks around they’d, lot of digital banking’s digital loan applications. And so they use technology very well. And because of their technology edge, they were able to offer and process far more of the treasury department’s PPP loans to small and medium-sized businesses around the country to the point that they did billions of dollars worth of these things, and really wrapped up a lot of fees, processing these lungs for their customers, giving it a big earnings boost. It came, comes onto the sheriff. Third on the list at 30 bucks, it’s already made a huge move guys because they, you know, they’ve got the lead in a PPP loans. They’re opening new accounts, taking in deposits from customers who are just really, really happy that they helped them with his lung. So it’s already good. The stocks made a huge move. He comes onto our list is one of the top performing stocks in the last 30 days, but it kind of shoot higher from there. It goes all the way up in a very short period of time to over $70 a share. So that’s better than double your money in a short period of time from a bank,

Carter Clews (13:58):

From a bank. And let me point out, these are not stocks that average folks like me are going to be finding. Cause I don’t, I don’t even know how to look for 30 and 90 day momentum. I just be honest with you. I think most of my friends do. So we got to look to you, that’s it right?

Tim Melvin (14:15):

Probably. Yeah. You won’t find them anywhere else, but I’m going to identify them each and every day I open my open my morning briefing, right under that trending section, there’s going to be the best, my best 30 day momentum idea and my best 90 day momentum idea for that day. And every day it’s going to be there available to you. And again, free now, as I said at the top, there’s two types of stocks that have been consistent winners. One’s momentum. We love momentum on the 30 and 90 day variety, both, but there’s also value. And we’re going to come back because that’s also going to be part of trending today and talk about buying stocks with very low price earnings, multiples, or stocks trading for a lot less than their asset value. Also great ways to make huge gains. So I’m Tim, Melvin, we’ll come back car tomorrow and we’ll talk about using value to crush the stock market.

Carter Clews (15:13):

Fantastic, Tim, this just one time a week. Conservatives want to be trending, trending today back to more with valuation. Thank you. Thank you.